U.S. Property and Casualty Insurance Market Overview - 2025

The U.S. property and casualty insurance industry achieved improved underwriting results in 2025, overcoming recent years of heightened catastrophe losses and economic fluctuations. A briefing from the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman highlighted that the net combined ratio (NCR) reached its best level in over a decade, demonstrating stronger underwriting performance across key insurance lines.

Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, of Triple-I, emphasized that despite improved conditions, the industry continues to navigate substantial catastrophe risks and economic unpredictability. The first quarter saw real GDP growth slow to 2.0%, while inflation remained at 3.3% in March, exceeding Federal Reserve targets. The insurance sector also experienced a 1.8% decline in employment year-over-year, showcasing ongoing market-specific challenges.

According to Patrick Schmid, Ph.D., chief insurance officer at Triple-I, replacement costs have moderated since 2022 but are expected to rise through 2028, potentially surpassing national inflation rates. Improved underwriting conditions in some property lines are overshadowed by persistent claims costs and market uncertainty, impacting profitability.

General liability and commercial auto insurance lines reported net combined ratios above 100 but anticipate gradual improvements by 2028. Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, from Milliman, noted that ongoing litigation pressures and severe claims contribute to sustained loss costs in these sectors. Conversely, workers’ compensation insurance is maintaining robust performance, with forecasted net combined ratios in the low 90s through 2028, per Donna Glenn, chief actuary at NCCI.

Triple-I has been a cornerstone for risk and insurance data since 1960, enhancing industry collaboration and understanding. As an affiliate of The Institutes, Triple-I represents a significant portion of U.S. property and casualty premiums, dedicated to advancing knowledge in risk management. Milliman, providing solutions since 1947, continues to address complex challenges globally across insurance and financial services, aiming to meet broad business objectives.