SiriusPoint Forecasts Divergent Market Trends in 2026 Reinsurance Renewals

SiriusPoint's global reinsurance chief, David Govrin, outlines divergent market conditions expected for the January 1 renewals across property, specialty, and casualty reinsurance lines. The property segment, viewed as the market bellwether, is anticipated to remain competitive with ongoing pressure on rates, terms, and conditions, influenced by another year of modest global catastrophe activity despite significant events like California wildfires. This environment fosters detailed negotiations over contract structure and wording as reinsurers adjust from a light global catastrophe loss experience. Specialty lines will experience varied market dynamics depending on the specific sector. For instance, the aviation reinsurance market faces upward pressure on pricing and retention driven by loss trends, whereas segments like marine and energy benefit from increased capacity and softer terms. This differentiation underscores the importance of underlining loss performance in specialty renewals. The US casualty sector presents the most polarized reinsurer perspectives, with attitudes diverging on factors such as social inflation, prior-year loss deterioration, and underwriting quality. Some reinsurers are expanding their portfolios while others contract, reflecting uncertainty and selective risk appetite within this segment. Market watchers like Aon and Antares Global note a shift favoring buyers, citing growing capacity and steady catastrophe bond issuances that contribute to pricing flexibility. The overall direction points to a "measured softening" in reinsurance rates for 2026 renewals, contingent on the absence of major catastrophe events. Across all sectors, underwriting discipline and transparent, proactive communication between reinsurers, brokers, and cedents remain critical. Renewal negotiations will increasingly focus on detailed portfolio data and contract attributes rather than headline rate changes, indicating a nuanced and data-driven approach to risk transfer going forward.