Swiss Re Forecasts Slower Global Insurance Growth Due to US Tariffs

The Swiss Re Institute's latest sigma study forecasts that increased US tariffs will slow global economic growth, impacting global insurance premium growth. Premium growth is projected to decline from 5.2% in 2024 to around 2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, with global GDP growth slowing from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026. Life insurance turnover is expected to slow significantly after 2024, while non-life premiums will also see a reduced growth rate due to competitive pressure and market softness in commercial lines.

Despite the premium growth slowdown, Swiss Re expects insurance profitability to improve, driven by better investment income. The tariff impact will differ by region, with the United States, as the largest insurance market, facing the most pronounced effects on its insurance sector.