North American Insurance Market Analysis: Rate Trends and Insights

According to Willis Towers Watson's latest analysis of the North American insurance market, the rise in rates for excess casualty insurance may be nearing a plateau. Auto liability and some challenging general liability categories continue to defy this trend and are expected to see rate increases.

The fall Insurance Marketplace Realities report from Willis Towers Watson suggests potential stabilization in excess casualty rates due to several contributing factors. New capacity introduced by managing general agents and broker-led facilities, a history of steady rate increases, and insurers offering smaller coverage limits are all playing a significant role. However, the auto liability sector and certain difficult general liability categories remain exceptions, continuing to push rate increases upwards.

Property Insurance Rate Movements

Significant changes also loom in property insurance. Willis Towers Watson forecasts notable rate reductions, with single-carrier programs expected to decline by 5% to 15% and shared and layered programs possibly seeing even greater reductions of 15% to 25%. This trend is attributed to increasing competition among carriers and a return to pre-pandemic rate levels. An important note of concern, however, is that these stabilized rates might shift if a catastrophic event exceeding $150 billion occurs.

Economic Forces at Play

While the market is currently stabilizing, economic pressures persist. The first half of 2026 saw $42 billion in insured catastrophe losses, marking the lowest since 2020. Meanwhile, replacement cost inflation, driven by tariffs and supply chain issues, continues to exert pressure. Underwriters emphasize the importance of accurate property valuations amid these economic challenges.

Casualty Insurance Dynamics

In the casualty insurance arena, while rates continue to climb, the pace has visibly slowed. General liability rates are set to rise between 2% and 10%; auto liability might see an increase of 8% to 15% for lower-risk categories and as high as 10% to 20% for higher-risk classes. Conversely, workers' compensation rates remain in decline, ranging from a 3% reduction to a 2% increase.

Underlying loss trends reveal persistent challenges such as social inflation and large jury verdicts, pushing many buyers toward higher deductibles and increased self-retentions. Third-party litigation funding further exacerbates adverse loss development, creating a need for specialized risk management strategies.

Strategic Adjustments for Brokers

Insurance buyers entering the January 1 renewal period should be prepared for a fragmented market landscape. Property buyers wield increased bargaining power, especially in layered programs, as carriers compete for market share. Those prepared with precise property valuations will likely secure better pricing and conditions. In casualty lines, however, the situation remains tenuous, with fleets and high-risk general liability categories facing potential rate hikes once more.

As the industry navigates these predicted shifts, a robust understanding of market trends, economic influences, and strategic risk management remains crucial for brokers and insurance professionals. Staying informed and agile will be key to leveraging opportunities and mitigating risks in this complex landscape.