Optimism in U.S. Property/Casualty Insurance Sector Through 2028

A recent report by the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I) and Milliman highlights favorable conditions in the U.S. property/casualty (P/C) insurance sector. This optimism is fueled by stabilizing economic factors and moderated claims costs. Despite concerns like increased catastrophe risks and geopolitical uncertainties, the report predicts improved underwriting performance across several key insurance lines through 2028.

Michel Léonard, chief economist at Triple-I, noted that industry projections have shown progress compared to earlier this year. He stated, "P/C underlying growth, instrumental to premium volume increases, is forecasted to surpass the overall U.S. GDP growth through 2028." However, Léonard cautioned about economic risks, notably inflation from geopolitical conflicts, which could impact regulatory compliance requirements.

The report foresees the P/C sector outperforming GDP growth this year and into 2028, despite risks that may heighten by 2026. Personal insurance lines have seen favorable results in early 2026, a trend expected to continue, though homeowners may face uncertainties related to natural disasters. Commercial lines, especially property-related coverages, are benefiting, yet challenges remain in general liability and commercial auto, primarily due to higher loss ratios.

Workers' compensation enjoys strong underwriting conditions, buoyed by stable employment and wages. Patrick Schmid, chief insurance officer at Triple-I, emphasized disciplined underwriting and risk-based pricing as vital to market stability long-term. Jason B. Kurtz, a principal and consulting actuary at Milliman, remarked, "Despite improvements, lines like general liability and commercial auto continue to challenge due to sustained loss-cost pressures."

Stephen Cooper from NCCI noted, while current employment trends and contained medical inflation are positive, variables such as rising interest rates and potential frequency shifts necessitate vigilant monitoring. Established in 1960, Triple-I provides data-driven insights into risks and insurance, representing a significant portion of U.S. P/C insurance premiums. Milliman, founded in 1947, offers actuarial expertise, aiding businesses and governments in managing complex risks.