U.S. Property/Casualty Insurance Outlook: 2026-2027 Trends and Predictions

As Travelers prepares to announce its fourth-quarter earnings for 2025, the Swiss Re Institute has unveiled a comprehensive outlook for the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry spanning 2026 and 2027. Titled 'U.S. Property/Casualty Outlook,' the report provides deep insights into industry trends following a notably strong third quarter in 2025, characterized by an exceptional combined ratio of 89, indicating impressive underwriting performance not experienced in decades. The report reveals that 2025 represented the zenith of the underwriting cycle for the U.S. property and casualty insurance sector, predicting a shift back to historical norms in terms of return-on-equity (ROE) and premium growth due to increased market competition and inflation's impact. Quarterly data shows a decline in premium growth rates, highlighting the changes in premium dynamics across various sectors, including personal auto and commercial multiple peril insurance. The critical role of strategic pricing is emphasized, along with Travelers' impressive financial results in contrast to industry expectations.