Texas ACA Enrollment Rises Despite Expired Federal Subsidies

Texas Marketplace Enrollment Climbs Even as Enhanced ACA Subsidies Expire

The early numbers out of Texas are turning heads.

While national Affordable Care Act marketplace enrollment is slipping for the first time in several years after enhanced federal premium tax credits expired, Texas is moving in the opposite direction. As of January 3, about 4.11 million Texans had selected an ACA marketplace plan for 2026 coverage, roughly a 6.5% increase over the same point last year, according to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services data. (AP News)

That makes Texas one of a small handful of states that have already exceeded last year’s pace even as overall U.S. enrollment trends downward. (AP News)

Why Texas is defying the national trend

At the national level, the story is straightforward: without the enhanced subsidies, many consumers are seeing higher net premiums, and some are hesitating, shopping longer, or walking away altogether. The Associated Press reported enrollment is down by about 800,000 people nationally, with some consumers facing sharp premium jumps once the extra assistance disappeared. (AP News)

Texas is showing a different kind of resilience. One reason is structural: the state’s 2021 “premium alignment” policy has helped preserve unusually strong value in certain metal tiers, especially for subsidized shoppers. Analysts have noted that this approach can make some Bronze and Gold offerings more attractive than in states without similar pricing dynamics. (Texas 2036)

“The underlying thing that we noticed, which is that there are affordable options out there, is something that is being noticed by lots of Texans.”
Charles Miller, Senior Policy Adviser, Texas 2036 (Texas 2036)

The catch: early enrollment is not the final story

Insurers and distribution leaders know this phase well: plan selection is only step one. The bigger test often arrives when the first invoice hits.

With enhanced subsidies gone, the risk is that some consumers who were automatically re-enrolled will discover their net premium is higher than expected, then switch plans, downgrade coverage, or drop coverage entirely. Multiple analysts cited in national reporting have warned that cancellations can rise later in the cycle as people react to real monthly costs rather than estimated ones. (AP News)

This matters for carriers and agencies because it can create a deceptively strong “front-end” enrollment picture followed by churn, billing attrition, and membership instability in late January and February.

A quick look at the market dynamics

Below is a simplified snapshot of what’s happening in early January, using publicly reported figures.

The broader pricing environment for 2026 also adds context. CMS projected that for many eligible HealthCare.gov enrollees, after-tax-credit premiums remain relatively low on average, but the loss of enhanced credits reduces the share of premiums covered for some households, increasing what they pay out of pocket. (CMS)

What the Hill is doing about it

The policy world is moving quickly too. In early January, the U.S. House passed legislation to extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits for three years, sending the issue to the Senate where the outcome remains uncertain. (The Guardian)

“The House passed a bill extending ACA tax credits, sending the measure to the Senate.”
Associated Press (AP News)

For Texas, the federal debate is more than political theater. If enhanced credits return, Texas could see additional retention and growth. If they do not, Texas may still outperform peers, but the state’s advantage could narrow as affordability pressure builds.

One bullet-point section: what insurance leaders should watch next

• Billing-based attrition: Watch late-January and February effectuation and termination patterns, especially among auto-renewals. (AP News)

• Metal-level migration: If premium alignment continues to create “sweet spots,” expect more tier switching than outright drop-off in some segments. (Texas 2036)

• Legislative whiplash: Senate action (or inaction) on subsidy extension could change consumer behavior midstream and complicate forecasting. (The Guardian)

What this means for the industry

Texas is reinforcing a familiar lesson for ACA stakeholders: affordability is not only about subsidies, it’s also about plan pricing mechanics, consumer communications, and how well the market “catches” people who would otherwise fall out.

The near-term takeaway is encouraging but incomplete. Enrollment is up, but the industry should treat early plan selections as a leading indicator, not a finish line. The real signal will be what happens after consumers see their net premiums and decide whether to stay, switch, or exit before and after the January 15 open enrollment deadline. (CMS)