ACA Subsidy Expiration to Cost Georgia $3.7B Health Sector Revenue in 2025

A forecast by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Urban Institute highlights significant financial risks for state health sectors if Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies expire. Georgia alone could face a $3.7 billion loss in health sector revenue next year, ranking it among the three states with the largest potential revenue declines alongside Florida and Texas. These losses stem from the potential ending of ACA premium tax subsidies that have helped millions afford health insurance through the Marketplace Exchange.

In several states, including West Virginia and Florida, millions of individuals rely on ACA subsidies and Medicaid coverage for access to affordable healthcare. If federal support lapses, many could face drastic premium increases or loss of coverage altogether. For example, in West Virginia, the monthly premium for some families could increase fivefold without subsidies.

Medicaid funding is also under threat due to proposed federal cuts and cost overruns, with states like California and Connecticut already grappling with budgetary pressures. This environment poses operational and financial challenges for healthcare providers, who are simultaneously navigating regulatory uncertainties.

The healthcare sector's employment growth, a significant contributor to overall job gains, is also at risk amid Medicaid cuts and immigration policy changes, which may restrict workforce availability. Healthcare employers added significant jobs year-to-date, but future growth may be constrained.

Providers and payers are exploring strategies to mitigate the potential adverse effects of subsidy expirations and Medicaid funding reductions. The uncertain regulatory landscape driven by federal policy decisions underscores the need for continued industry focus on risk management, financial planning, and compliance adaptation.