KFF Analysis Predicts 18% Average ACA Premium Increase in 2026

The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) analysis forecasts an 18% median increase in Affordable Care Act (ACA) exchange premiums for 2026, with some health plans proposing hikes up to 30%. The majority of premium increases range from 12% to 27%, with significant portions requesting 15%-20%, 20%-25%, and 25%-30% increases.

Rising premiums under the ACA have been linked to increased market consolidation within the health insurance industry, which reduces competitive pricing dynamics. Additionally, regulatory factors such as the ACA's Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) requirements may inadvertently facilitate higher premium costs by limiting administrative spending but potentially encouraging higher charging on other fronts. Some critiques argue that premium increases are not solely attributable to the cessation of expanded COVID-19 subsidies and point to structural challenges within the ACA's framework.

These trends raise concerns about the affordability and competitiveness of ACA marketplace plans moving forward, highlighting ongoing regulatory and market pressures shaping the U.S. health insurance landscape.