Moody's Survey Signals Rate Reductions and Rising Demand in 2026 U.S. Property Reinsurance

The 2025 Moody's Ratings reinsurance buyers survey highlights a significant shift toward rate reductions in the U.S. property reinsurance market for 2026, contrasting with previous years' expectations for stable or rising prices. Approximately 75% of survey respondents anticipate further declines in property reinsurance rates, driven mainly by increased capacity among traditional reinsurers and the growing presence of alternative reinsurance capital. These trends follow several years of elevated premium rates and tightened contract terms, including higher attachment points and reduced aggregate covers, which have collectively mitigated losses from small to mid-sized catastrophes.

While the property reinsurance market is poised for rate softening, demand for coverage is expected to grow. About a third of respondents plan to increase property reinsurance purchases for U.S. and Caribbean exposures, with others maintaining current coverage levels. This is attributed to insurers’ continued need to manage tail risk exposures amid persistent above-average catastrophe losses and the easing of some underwriting terms.

In contrast, casualty reinsurance exhibits mixed pricing expectations, with some buyers forecasting stable or increased rates due to rising loss costs and tighter capacity. Nearly half the respondents foresee casualty claims increase by 0–5%, and over a third predict a 5–10% rise. Nonetheless, signs of pricing moderation emerge as a larger share of buyers anticipate stable or declining premium rates compared to the previous year.

Attachment points in property reinsurance are expected to remain largely stable, sustaining primary insurers’ retention of non-peak losses such as those from convective storms, wildfires, and floods. Although some buyers are interested in expanding aggregate reinsurance protections, seller appetite remains uncertain. Moreover, a significant majority of survey participants indicate intentions to increase coverage for tail risk, reflecting concerns over the anticipated rise in natural catastrophe frequencies and severities in the coming year.

Overall, the Moody’s survey provides valuable insights into evolving underwriting and pricing dynamics in the U.S. reinsurance market ahead of the 2026 renewal season, highlighting a balancing act between increasing coverage needs and moderated pricing conditions influenced by abundant reinsurance capacity and evolving risk retention strategies.