CBO Projects Nearly 11 Million to Lose Health Coverage Under GOP Tax Bill

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released an analysis indicating that nearly 11 million people in the United States would lose health insurance under the proposed House Republican tax bill. The projected coverage losses are primarily attributed to cuts in Medicaid and modifications to the Affordable Care Act (ACA) exchanges over the next decade. These changes involve stricter work requirements and more frequent eligibility verifications for Medicaid recipients, as well as new restrictions on state-funded health programs, particularly those serving undocumented immigrants.

Of the total estimated uninsured, approximately 7.8 million are expected to lose Medicaid coverage, while about 1.4 million individuals participating in state health programs without verified citizenship or immigration status would face barriers due to proposed legislative restrictions. The bill also affects ACA exchange coverage, contributing to the overall increase in uninsured individuals.

The CBO report provides a data-driven basis for debate among policymakers, with Democratic leaders emphasizing the potential negative impact on health coverage across vulnerable populations. Conversely, Republican lawmakers acknowledge the projected losses but defend their provisions by highlighting efforts to limit coverage to those meeting work requirements and by focusing on reducing benefits extended to undocumented immigrants.

Some Republican senators have expressed reservations about the Medicaid provisions, suggesting potential modifications before supporting the bill. However, work requirements for Medicaid eligibility remain a popular component among many lawmakers despite concerns about coverage declines. The analysis and ensuing political discussion underscore ongoing tensions in balancing fiscal policy, healthcare coverage, and regulatory compliance in federal legislation affecting health insurance markets.

This projected loss of coverage has significant implications for the insurance industry, healthcare providers, and policymakers, as it would influence demand for private insurance plans, reshape Medicaid enrollment, and affect compliance obligations among payers and providers. Stakeholders in the insurance and healthcare sectors should monitor legislative developments closely to anticipate market shifts and regulatory changes resulting from this bill.