Q1 2026 Commercial Insurance Renewal Rates: Trends and Insights
According to the Ivans Index, the first quarter of 2026 witnessed a continued softening in commercial premium renewal rates in the U.S., with most key insurance lines showing year-over-year growth. However, workers' compensation remains an exception, with renewal rates persisting in negative territory.
The Index, which measures rate changes across significant commercial lines, revealed that all major lines experienced lower average renewal increases in Q1 2026 than in Q4 2025. Compared to the same period in 2025, all but the workers' compensation line reported higher renewal rates, indicating a gradual market relaxation rather than a comprehensive downturn.
In the commercial auto sector, renewal rates eased to an average of 5.28% in Q1 2026, down from 6.97% in the previous quarter. January recorded the highest rate change at 5.62%, while March marked the lowest at 5.05%.
The businessowners policy (BOP) segment followed a similar pattern, with the average premium renewal rate change descending to 6.74% from 7.52% in the prior quarter. The highest average rate change occurred in January at 6.89%, decreasing to 6.51% by March, reflecting a general trend of moderated rate changes.
General liability experienced a quarterly decline in renewal rate changes, averaging 6.85% in Q1 2026 as opposed to 7.23% in Q4 2025. February saw the peak monthly average at 7.01% within the quarter, with March at 6.64%.
Commercial property witnessed a notable slowdown, with average premium renewal rates at 6.83%, down from 8.01% the previous quarter. This trend follows several years marked by high property pricing due to significant catastrophe losses and inflationary factors, resulting in restricted capacity and stricter terms in property catastrophe programs.
Umbrella insurance, while still maintaining the highest rates among tracked lines, demonstrated slight moderation. Renewal rates averaged 9.36% in Q1 2026, marginally down from 9.49% in Q4 2025. Rates reached their peak for the quarter in January at 10.47%, tapering to 8.76% by March.
Workers' compensation renewal rates remained in negative territory, averaging a change of -1.73% in Q1 2026 compared to -1.61% in the previous quarter. The lowest monthly rate was observed in January at -2.17%, with February reaching -1.43%. This trend reflects ongoing favorable loss trends and strong market competition, but continues to pressure carrier profitability within the line.
The Q1 2026 data from Ivans suggests the market may be moving away from peak hard pricing rather than entering a widespread soft phase. Other industry indicators echo these findings, with surveys from major brokers indicating moderated but positive rate changes in many commercial lines as additional capacity enters the market post-2024 and 2025 remediation efforts.
Despite slower quarter-on-quarter increases, current premium levels remain higher than in past years, especially for property, auto, and umbrella insurance. Insurers continue to exercise prudence regarding attachment points, limits, and terms, albeit with emerging competition on well-run accounts. Risk differentiation thus holds substantial value at renewal.
Carriers are evaluating this data against rising claim cost trends influenced by factors such as social inflation, increased jury awards, and litigation funding. These issues add pressure, particularly in auto and umbrella lines, while property insurers face challenges from secondary perils like severe convective storms and wildfires. With slower rate increases, carriers are likely to intensify focus on precise pricing, expense control, and strategic risk selection.
"Q1 sets an important baseline for 2026, with commercial rates continuing to soften as the market adjusts to a more moderate pace of change," said Michael Streit, president of Ivans. "Understanding market direction is what drives smarter decisions, and the Ivans Index gives the industry a shared reference point to track where it heads next."