Clear Secure Expands Into Medicare.gov Identity Verification, Shifting Growth Dynamics

Clear Secure has secured a contract with the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) to integrate its CLEAR1 digital identity platform into Medicare.gov starting in early 2026. This strategic move expands Clear Secure's role from its traditional focus on airport security to a broader presence within healthcare identity verification, impacting tens of millions of Medicare beneficiaries and health plan members. The partnership aims to address growing concerns over fraud and data security by providing high-assurance digital identity verification for beneficiaries and providers accessing Medicare services. In addition to the CMS contract, Clear Secure has formed new healthcare partnerships with companies like Sharecare and Welldoc to enhance secure access to digital health services. These developments indicate Clear Secure's intention to diversify its identity verification services beyond travel into large-scale healthcare systems, potentially reshaping its revenue mix and long-term growth prospects. While the healthcare contract is a significant advancement, Clear Secure's near-term financial performance remains closely tied to its credit card partnership renewals and pricing negotiations, which continue to be primary growth drivers and pose potential risks if economic conditions tighten. Investors should monitor these credit card partnership terms closely as they could influence the company's revenue and margin outlook. Financial projections for Clear Secure suggest revenue growth to $1.1 billion and earnings of $149.9 million by 2028, representing a 9.7% compound annual growth rate in revenue. However, earnings are forecasted to decline slightly from current levels, highlighting the need for Clear Secure to successfully balance its expanding healthcare initiatives with its established business lines. Investor sentiment around Clear Secure varies widely, with fair value estimates ranging considerably based on assumptions about the company’s future performance and the outcomes of key partnership negotiations. The extension of Clear Secure into high-assurance identity verification in healthcare presents a potentially stabilizing revenue source, particularly if travel-related consumer memberships falter.