KFF Poll: 25% of Obamacare Enrollees May Lose Coverage Without Extended ACA Tax Credits

A recent KFF poll reveals that the expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits could lead to significant coverage losses among Obamacare enrollees. Approximately 25% of current enrollees indicate they would likely forgo coverage if tax credits are not extended, driven by an expected doubling of premiums. These subsidies, increased in 2021 under the Biden administration, have made individual health insurance more affordable, helping enrollment surpass 24 million. Without the tax credits, the average annual premiums for subsidized enrollees would surge from $888 to $1,904. In response, many plan to either shop for lower-premium plans with higher out-of-pocket costs or become uninsured. The potential rise in the uninsured population could exceed 5 million, exacerbating affordability challenges and creating larger gaps in coverage. The poll also indicates bipartisan concern over the possible drop in coverage and increased costs. While no firm agreement exists to extend the subsidies, a bipartisan House bill proposes a two-year extension. Notably, more than 80% of current enrollees, including a majority of Republicans, support continuing the financial assistance. The findings underscore the broader market implications of subsidy expiration, including increased out-of-pocket expenses and coverage attrition, which may influence political dynamics and healthcare debates. Stakeholders in the insurance and healthcare sectors should monitor legislative developments closely, as changes to subsidy policy will markedly impact payer/provider markets and consumer affordability. KFF President Drew Altman emphasized that the challenges faced by marketplace enrollees without extended subsidies will highlight ongoing struggles with healthcare costs. The issue is poised to be central in upcoming political discussions and health policy considerations going forward.