KFF Poll Reveals Partisan Divide on New Tax and Health Legislation Impact

The recent tax and budget legislation, referred to by Republicans as the “big beautiful bill,” has prompted substantial public engagement and polarized opinions, especially regarding its impact on health programs such as Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Awareness of the legislation has increased to 68% of the U.S. public, with Democrats showing slightly higher awareness than Republicans and independents. Within Republican circles, those aligned with the MAGA movement demonstrate greater familiarity with the bill compared to non-MAGA Republicans.

Among insurance market segments, 66% of individuals purchasing their own insurance and 60% of Medicaid enrollees under 65 report awareness of the legislation, highlighting the direct implications for these groups. Despite this awareness, overall favorability is low at 36%, contrasted with a 63% unfavorable view. However, these aggregate figures conceal significant partisan divergence: Republican favorability increased 17 points to 78%, while Democratic disapproval rose to 94%. Independent opinions remain predominantly unfavorable but stable.

MAGA-affiliated Republicans exhibit higher favorability (85%) than their non-MAGA counterparts (54%), with the latter group’s support rising markedly post-enactment. Medicaid enrollees show a predominantly negative stance, with 69% viewing the legislation unfavorably. Lower-income adults also express skepticism, with only 30% favorable toward the bill.

Perceived personal impact varies by partisanship and income. Nearly half of adults believe the bill will harm them, a sentiment particularly strong among Democrats (72%) and Medicaid participants (65%). Conversely, a growing share of Republicans (54%) anticipate benefits, especially within the MAGA subgroup (61%). Among independents and lower-income groups, negative impact perceptions dominate.

Social media has played a critical role in disseminating information, with 73% of all adults and 78% of social media users reporting exposure to the bill through platforms like Facebook and YouTube. The content encountered reflects partisan divides: Democrats largely saw opposition content, while Republicans were more likely to report supportive or mixed messages. The perceived helpfulness of social media content in understanding the bill is higher among Democrats and independents than Republicans, and younger adults rate the content’s utility more favorably.

These dynamics underscore the polarized nature of public opinion on significant fiscal and healthcare policy adjustments. Health insurance professionals should consider these divisions in anticipated enrollment shifts, payer-provider negotiations, and regulatory compliance amid evolving Medicaid and ACA frameworks. Tracking social media sentiment can also provide valuable insights into market perceptions and communication strategies.

This legislation’s ongoing effects on Medicaid, individual insurance markets, and public sentiment about healthcare policy will remain critical areas for analysis as implementation proceeds. The widening partisan gap and demographic differences in perception point to challenges in achieving consensus on health program funding and reforms. Monitoring these trends is essential for stakeholders navigating the U.S. health insurance landscape post-legislation.